3 months ago
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Exponential growth and epidemics



#three brown one blue #3b1b #Mathematics #covid-19 #Education
A good time for a primer on exponential and logistic growth, no?
Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com
Brought to you by you: http://3b1b.co/covid-thanks
Excellent visualization of this kind of growth from Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina
Some have (quite rightfully) commented on how you shouldn't look at the R^2 of linear regressions on cumulative data since even if the changes from one day to the next are completely random, the totals they add up to wouldn't be independent of each other. Since the derivative of an exponential should also be an exponential, we could instead run the same test on the logarithms of the differences from day to day, which in this case gives R^2 = 0.91.
While this video uses COVID-19 as a motivating example, the main goal is simply a math lesson on exponentials and logistic curves. If you're looking for a video more focused on COVID-19 itself, I'd recommend taking a look at this one from Osmosis: https://youtu.be/cFB_C2ieW5I
Extrapolation xkcd: https://xkcd.com/605/
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These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it's not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind.

Music by Vincent Rubinetti.
Download the music on Bandcamp:
https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/album/the-music-of-3blue1brown

Stream the music on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjwS8FBqXhRunaG5W5u

If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then "add subtitles/cc". I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people.

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3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http://3b1b.co/subscribe

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#coronavirus #3 blue 1 brown #epidemic #3brown1blue #three blue one brown #3 brown 1 blue

3Blue1Brown photo 1 Exponential growth and epidemics 3Blue1Brown photo 2 Exponential growth and epidemics 3Blue1Brown photo 3 Exponential growth and epidemics 3Blue1Brown photo 4 Exponential growth and epidemics

Media: "Everybody Panic"
Governments: "Everybody Stay Calm"
3blue1brown: "Be Sufficiently Worried"

by Mate Egyed 4 months ago

3Blue One Brown: " This growth would mean Hitting 1 million cases in 30 days (April 5th)"
World: *Hits one million cases April 4th
Me: *Impressed yet shocked

by Anthony Strathern 3 months ago

Now whenever your kids ask you where they will use math in the real world, you show them this video.

by Mustafa Malik 3 months ago

I'd like to point out that 3 weeks ago, this simulated curve showed us passing 1 million total cases on April 6th. It's April 2nd and we just did so. That really shows the power behind the exponential and how closely an epidemic follows it.

by st 3 months ago

I needed to see this video today. So do millions of others! Helpful, concise, unalarmist, and a good lesson in exponential growth to boot! Thank you. -John

by vlogbrothers 4 months ago

YOU've earned the like just for that wedding meme.

by ahmed elakrab 3 months ago

So, we're at 4 million and it's been two months, so it's "nice" to know that we're closer to the best case scenario then the worst case scenario.

by thelightningwave 2 months ago

... you brilliantly demonstrated that mathematics is indeed a life science. Thank you!

by Klaus Kraywinkel 3 months ago

3blue1brown: 1 million cases on April 5th.
Cases today: close to 1 million




Oh no

by Dionisis Aslanidis 3 months ago

My man really just took the second derivative of the coronavirus

by MapleTreemon 4 months ago

"if the present trend continues we will hit a million cases in 30 days"
Turns out the trend has continued!

by sumsam ullah 3 months ago

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything after will seem inadequate."

by Samuel Wang 4 days ago

You: We should be worried.
Your neighbours: We shouldn’t be worried.
3Blue1Brown: We should all be concerned.

by Imran Raja 3 months ago

I Love how math makes the most complected processes in the world predictable.

by Shady Ganem 3 months ago

The World: WE ARE GOING TO DIE FROM THIS VIRUS!!

3blue 1brown: but have you seen the perfect exponential growth it has created

by Jack Drummond 4 months ago

"In the real world nothing is truly exponential. It is just the exponential part of a logistic curve." Looks at infinite growth economics

by Ryan Jensen 3 months ago

"When people are sufficiently worried, then there is a lot less to be worried about."


Wall Street would like to have a word with you, sir.

by John By'ron 3 months ago

seeing all the clusters slowly infecting each other on a very calm music drives me insane

by Scr3aMSound 3 months ago

if no ones worried, thts when u shud worry.
after seeing florida beach spring breakers. ya i shud def b worried here in the usa.

by God 3 months ago

Mp3 Download

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